The Tariff Dilemma: Are We Overlooking a Greater Concern?

In today’s rapidly shifting economic landscape, it’s perplexing to see the lack of concern from experts, business leaders, and reputable news organizations regarding the potential consequences of tariffs. Reflecting on the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed the immediate repercussions when the supply chain was under strain: inventory shortages, soaring freight costs, congested ports, and unpredictably lengthy delivery times. This experience should serve as a cautionary tale, especially as we confront a similar scenario—albeit without the fiscal support, abundant household funds, or historically low interest rates that characterized the previous crisis.

As I engage with fellow business owners, a common trend has emerged: many have opted to suspend new container orders for over a month. In fact, our companies alone have paused or canceled 57 orders. However, the moment there is any indication that tariffs may be lifted or any stabilization occurs, we can expect a surge in backorders. It’s important to remember that international manufacturing and logistics cannot simply reactivate instantaneously; the demand for containers and products will swiftly eclipse available capacity, reminiscent of the situation that unfolded once China resumed operations in 2020.

Even in a scenario where the U.S. government eliminated tariffs this very day, we would still face a lag of 60 to 90 days before any products make it to store shelves. This timeline assumes a smooth process—an optimistic outlook that is unlikely to materialize. The challenges that we faced previously—such as manufacturing delays, congested ports, outbound shipping issues, and skyrocketing freight rates—are bound to resurface, echoing the difficulties we encountered during the pandemic.

The statistics support this perspective. Major retailers, over the past year, have focused on normalizing their inventory rather than stockpiling, leaving no cushion for unexpected shocks. Additionally, without the stimulus funds that supported businesses during the pandemic—such as PPP, EIDL, ERC, or household checks—we find ourselves confronting higher interest rates and persistent inflation.

While tariffs often dominate political discussions, it’s crucial to recognize that the real issue transcends politics. It revolves around concrete mathematics, supply chain timing, and operational capacity.

A Personal Perspective

As someone with a background in entrepreneurship—having built and sold several companies in the goods, e-commerce, and real estate sectors—I understand the nuanced complexities of navigating these challenges. With a team of several hundred employees and an eight-figure revenue stream,